We are going to finish the year stronger than most believed,
including myself. November had a year-to-year increase of 0.2% and this is
before lagged closings. October was stronger after lagged closings than
initially expected, as the year-to-year increase is now a double digit at
12.7%.
Even without December results and lagged closings we are up
2.8% in 2005 over 2004 for all single family. We should easily have a
double-digit increase at year-end.
Breaking down November’s numbers, there were 702 closings
for condos and townhomes and 4,537 closings for detached single family or
year-to-year increases of 5.1% for condos and townhomes and <0.6%> for
detached single family. Condos and townhomes are already up 11.8% compared
to 2004 and may be up as much as 25% when the end of the year results have
been concluded. Detached single family is also up compared to all of 2004 at
1.5%.
The three components that have kept our housing market so
strong this year, even after so many negatives (hurricanes, Delta, gasoline
prices, etc.), are low interest rates, low home prices, and low
unemployment. If the consumer has a job and the cost of purchasing is low
then homes will be in demand.
The average sale price in November for detached single
family was $256,467 or a "moderate" increase of 6.6% over the same year ago
period. For the year, detached single family is up 6.4% from 2004.
The average sale price for condos and townhomes in November
was $185,643 or a decrease of 3.1% from November 2004. For the year, the
average price is down 0.3% from 2004 or almost unchanged.
For the second consecutive period months-supply-of-inventory
for resales decreased, but increased for new home construction. Resale
inventory for detached single family was 5.9 in November compared to 6.2 in
October. Resale inventory for condos and townhomes was 9.5 in November
compared to 9.7 in October.
New construction months supply increased, as single family
detached went from 7.6 in October to 7.7 in November, while condos and
townhomes increased to 7.3 from 7.1.
For the eleventh straight month expired listings decreased
from the same year ago period, as there were 3,982 expireds in November
compared to 4,293 a year ago. However, for the fourteenth consecutive period
withdrawn listings increased, as there were 1,434 withdrawns in November
compared to 1,218 for November 2004.
Days-on-market increased for condos and townhomes, 92.7
versus 88.0, and decreased for detached single family, 79.2 versus 80.6.
Thank you,
January 2006
