We are going to finish the year stronger than most believed, including myself. November had a year-to-year increase of 0.2% and this is before lagged closings. October was stronger after lagged closings than initially expected, as the year-to-year increase is now a double digit at 12.7%.

Even without December results and lagged closings we are up 2.8% in 2005 over 2004 for all single family. We should easily have a double-digit increase at year-end.

Breaking down November’s numbers, there were 702 closings for condos and townhomes and 4,537 closings for detached single family or year-to-year increases of 5.1% for condos and townhomes and <0.6%> for detached single family. Condos and townhomes are already up 11.8% compared to 2004 and may be up as much as 25% when the end of the year results have been concluded. Detached single family is also up compared to all of 2004 at 1.5%.

The three components that have kept our housing market so strong this year, even after so many negatives (hurricanes, Delta, gasoline prices, etc.), are low interest rates, low home prices, and low unemployment. If the consumer has a job and the cost of purchasing is low then homes will be in demand.

The average sale price in November for detached single family was $256,467 or a "moderate" increase of 6.6% over the same year ago period. For the year, detached single family is up 6.4% from 2004.

The average sale price for condos and townhomes in November was $185,643 or a decrease of 3.1% from November 2004. For the year, the average price is down 0.3% from 2004 or almost unchanged.

For the second consecutive period months-supply-of-inventory for resales decreased, but increased for new home construction. Resale inventory for detached single family was 5.9 in November compared to 6.2 in October. Resale inventory for condos and townhomes was 9.5 in November compared to 9.7 in October.

New construction months supply increased, as single family detached went from 7.6 in October to 7.7 in November, while condos and townhomes increased to 7.3 from 7.1.

For the eleventh straight month expired listings decreased from the same year ago period, as there were 3,982 expireds in November compared to 4,293 a year ago. However, for the fourteenth consecutive period withdrawn listings increased, as there were 1,434 withdrawns in November compared to 1,218 for November 2004.

Days-on-market increased for condos and townhomes, 92.7 versus 88.0, and decreased for detached single family, 79.2 versus 80.6.

Thank you,

Steve Palm
Smart Numbers