May 21, 2008
Is there any good news at all?
By Steve Palm,
Smart Numbers, Inc.
If you go back the past year and a half,
I probably have ended this newsletter and other newsletters at least a
half dozen times with the position that for any comeback in housing we
had to stay out of recession. However, the trending so far in 2008 has
pointed to the fact that we are in a recession for Metro Atlanta. The
sharp downturn in housing, especially new construction, escalating gas &
food prices, and the large number of foreclosures just has been too much
for our economy.
I am not an economist and an economist
has to be the one that says Atlanta is in recession, so I went to the
Georgia State Economic Forecasting conference today and economist Rajeev
Dhawan has come out and stated we are indeed in recession. Atlanta’s GNP
will decline in the 2nd & 3rd quarters in 2008 with a slow turnaround at
the end of 2008 and early 2009.
The following is a summary of April’s reporting and year-to-date 2008
results. Closings for all single family in April were 4,125 or a decline
of 33.9% from the same year ago period. Year-to-date, we are down 29%
from January-April 2007 and 32% from January-April 2006.
As you can see, we are now experiencing
year over year consecutive declines. Closings for all single family have
had a monthly year-to-year decline for 14 consecutive periods and 18 out
of the last 20 periods.
Single family detached closed 3,564 units
in April or a decline of 32.6% and condos & townhomes closed 561 units
in April or a decline of 41.5%. For the year, January-April, condos and
townhomes have declined 34% from January-April 2007.
The average price of homes just keeps dropping. The average price of
condos & townhomes was $186,238 for closings in April. This is down 7.8%
from April 2007’s $202,017 and 8.2% for year-to-date, January-April 08
versus 07.
The average price for single family
detached was $240,473 for closings in April. This is down 9.0% from
April 2007 and 10.1% for year-to-date, January-April 08 versus 07.
The average price for single family detached for the year is $238,496
and you would need to go back to 2002 to get an annual average that was
lower than 2008’s. However, condos & townhomes average price for the
year is $179,586 and you would need to go back even farther to 2001 to
get an annual average that was lower than 2008’s.
There were 6,291 expired listings for all
single family in April. Year-to-date there have been 25,948 expired
listings for all single family or more expired listings than we had for
all of 2000 (20,109). There have also been more withdrawn listings
year-to-date (11,578), than there were in 2000 (9,040).
Months supply just keeps going up, as all property classifications for
single family are over a year months-supply.
| Months
Supply |
04/30/2006 |
04/30/2007 |
04/30/2008 |
% Change 06' |
| New - Single Family Detached |
8.1 |
12.5 |
14.7 |
77.8% |
| New - Condos & Townhomes |
7.2 |
11.8 |
17.8 |
147.2% |
| Resale - Single Family
Detached |
6.5 |
8.9 |
12.8 |
96.9% |
| Resale - Condos & Townhomes |
9.3 |
10.2 |
12.9 |
38.7% |
Is there any good news? If I was in this market to buy a home I could
not have picked a better time and place, as right here in Atlanta and
right now is a great time to buy a home.
This document is copy protected by Steve Palm, Smart Numbers
and is reproduced with permission. No party may use or reproduce this
information without the express written permission of Steve Palm and Smart
Numbers.
© 2007 Smart Numbers
