Home Values are
Rising and Inventory Levels are Falling in Forsyth and North Fulton
By Steve Palm
Smart
Numbers
We got our rate cut
this last month! We HAD to have this reduction, but will it be enough to
turn our housing market around? I believe there will be one or two more
interest rate reductions before the end of the year. They will be needed
after looking at August 2007 results.
There were 5,129
closings for all single family in August. This is a decline of 34.6%
from the same year ago period. After lagged closings are reported, the
percentage decline will most likely be more than 20% and the largest
percentage decline on record (since 1996).
Single family
detached closed 4,343 units in August or a decline of 34.6% from the
same year ago period. This was the 6th consecutive percentage
decline and 12 out of the last 13 periods have produced a negative
year-to-year percentage change.
Condos and Townhomes
closed 785 units or a decline of 33.7% from August 2006. This was the
6th consecutive percentage decline and the 9th percentage
decline over the past 12 monthly periods.
The average sale
price for single family detached closings in August was $278,871 versus
$264,510 for the same year ago period. Condos and townhomes had an
average price of $193,009 versus $186,557 for August 2006.
The real estate bad
news does not translate to the north Fulton, west Gwinnett and Forsyth
County market. In August those areas experienced
-
A rise in resale
homes values
-
A significant
drop in the number of months of inventory
-
A drop in the
average number of days before a home sold
Locally, Forsyth
County home values increased 6% and North Fulton home values have
increased 8% from August 2006 to August 2007.
Forsyth County
currently has 7.32 months of inventory of pre-owned homes, down over
last month’s 8.93 months of inventory, which is the third consecutive
month of reduced inventory levels in Forsyth County. Augusts’ 122.2
average days on the market is also down 15.5 days from the previous
month of 137.7 average days on the market.
North Fulton
currently has 7.73 month’s of inventory which is down from last month’s
7.85 months of inventory of pre-owned homes. This month’s 110.7 average
selling time is up 14-days compared to last month’s average selling time
of 96.7 days.
There were 7,181
expired listings in August. This was 19 more than Last December’s
all-time record and 2,100 more than August 2006.
There are 36,894
expired listings for single family detached for year-to-date August
2007. There are 10,000+ more expired listings than were reported for the
first eight months of 2006 and more expired listings than were reported
for all of 2002.
Single family
detached and condos & townhomes broke the record in August for most
withdrawn listings for a given period. Single family detached had 3,196
withdrawn listings in August and easily surpassed the previous record of
2,920 withdrawn listings in June 2007. Condos and townhomes had 546
withdrawn listings in August and also easily surpassed the previous
record of 495 withdrawn listings in June 2007.
Days on market and
months supply continue to increase. Days on market for all single family
is averaging 86.2 through year-to-date 2007. This is the highest average
for the past 13 years and it is expected to go only higher.
Days on market for
year-to-date 2007 for condos and townhomes is 95.0, and is the highest
yearly average since records have been kept. The previous high was last
year’s 91.0.
Months supply is at
an all-time high and below is a three year August trend:
|
Months
Supply
|
08/31/2005 |
08/31/2006 |
08/31/2007 |
% Change 06
|
|
New - Single Family Detached |
7.5 |
10 |
13.8 |
38.0%
|
|
New - Condos & Townhomes |
7.5 |
8.4 |
13.7 |
63.1%
|
|
Resale - Single Family Detached |
6.6 |
7.4 |
10.8 |
45.9%
|
|
Resale - Condos & Townhomes |
10.5 |
9.5 |
11.4 |
20.0%
|
The rate cut was
indeed very good for our housing market. However, more is needed and
consumer sentiment needs to improve and soon. I believe 3rd quarter will
be our bottom and then our slow turn for improvement will begin in the
4th quarter.
This document is
copy protected by Steve Palm, Smart Numbers and is reproduced with
permission. No party may use or reproduce this information without the
express written permission of Steve Palm and Smart Numbers.
|
|
Sales
Statistics for Forsyth County GA |
|
Area |
Forsyth
August 2007 |
Sales |
Change |
Ave Sale
Price |
Change |
|
221 |
East GA -
400 |
137 |
77% |
$
377,499 |
107% |
|
222 |
West GA -
400 |
78 |
107% |
$
316,938 |
99% |
|
223 |
North |
37 |
66% |
$
328,524 |
112% |
|
|
|
252 |
82% |
$
1,022,961 |
106% |
|
|
Average |
84.0 |
82% |
$
340,987 |
106% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Area |
Forsyth
August 2006 |
Sales |
|
Ave Sale
Price |
|
|
221 |
East GA -
400 |
179 |
|
$
352,992 |
|
|
222 |
West GA -
400 |
73 |
|
$
321,436 |
|
|
223 |
North |
56 |
|
$
292,963 |
|
|
|
|
308 |
|
$
967,391 |
|
|
|
Average |
102.7 |
|
$
322,464 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Months of
Unsold Inventory Forsyth |
|
Area |
Forsyth
August 2007 |
Sales |
Units |
Mths of
Inventory |
DOM |
|
221 |
East GA -
400 |
137 |
1125 |
8.21 |
117.9 |
|
222 |
West GA -
400 |
78 |
412 |
5.28 |
113.1 |
|
223 |
North |
37 |
308 |
8.32 |
136.5 |
|
|
|
252 |
1845 |
|
|
|
|
Average |
84.0 |
|
7.32 |
122.5 |
|
|
DOM = Days
on market |
|
|
|
|
|
Sales
Statistics for North Fulton GA |
|
|
Area |
North Fulton
August 2007 |
Sales |
Change |
Ave Sale
Price |
Change |
|
13 |
West GA -
400 |
110 |
62% |
$
478,248 |
119% |
|
14 |
East GA -
400 |
162 |
74% |
$
421,878 |
98% |
|
121 |
Dunwoody |
38 |
72% |
$
441,461 |
88% |
|
131 |
Sandy
Springs |
18 |
47% |
$
723,556 |
118% |
|
132 |
Sandy
Springs |
18 |
78% |
$
870,183 |
114% |
|
|
|
346 |
68% |
$
2,935,326 |
108% |
|
|
Average |
69.2 |
68% |
$
587,065 |
108% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Area |
North Fulton
August 2006 |
Sales |
|
Ave Sale
Price |
|
|
13 |
West GA -
400 |
178 |
|
$
403,191 |
|
|
14 |
East GA -
400 |
220 |
|
$
430,736 |
|
|
121 |
Dunwoody |
53 |
|
$
500,164 |
|
|
131 |
Sandy
Springs |
38 |
|
$
615,234 |
|
|
132 |
Sandy
Springs |
23 |
|
$
766,154 |
|
|
|
|
512 |
|
$
2,715,479 |
|
|
|
Average |
102.4 |
|
$
543,096 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|