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Metro Atlanta's
Real Estate Update for July 2003.
August 28, 2003
July 2003 had 5,125 single family
detached and 599 condo & townhome closings. They both combined to close
5,724 units or another large increase of 9.7% over the same year ago period.
After a down first quarter, a "flat" April & May, we now have had record
closings in June and again in July.
We are now up for the year too.
After such a negative first quarter, this is a good turnaround for our
market.
Results for August and September
will provide a good indicator for the rest of 2003 and 2004. During the past
eight weeks, interest rates have gone up almost 1.4 basis points. After
"bottoming" out in the second week of June at around 4.8%, the 30 year
mortgage is now around 6.2%. This is still a very good rate, but nonetheless
a negative for the market.
Gasoline prices have also spiked up,
which is not nearly as market influencing as interest rates, but again,
still a negative.
What is very encouraging to see, is
that prices did not rise much the past two very strong months. This is due
to the fact that there was a lot of inventory to choose from. The average
price for condos and townhomes actually dropped from the previous month and
was up a modest 4.0% over the same year ago period. The average price for
July was $185,985 versus June's $188,985 and July 2002's $178,844.
The average price for single family
detached was $240,789, which is again another all-time high. This instill
only a 2.0% increase over the same year ago period, so even though the
prices keep rising, they are doing so at very low percentage increases,
which is good for the market.
Days on market, inventory, and
expired listings all trended favorably in July, with the most notable being
days on market. Review the attached charts to more effectively see the
trending, but days on market had a large drop from June to July.
Traditionally, days on market starts
to increase after the June - spring season, but with the market heating up
it actually dropped from 77.5 in June to 73.7 in July. This result was only
1.6 days higher than the same year ago period. This is also a lot better
than January's 86 result, which was an 11.4 increase from the same year ago
period.
The market inventory also stabilized
the past two months and this is good to see after almost three years of
"constant" upward seasonal increases. However, if the market remains strong
and inventory starts going down, then expect prices to increase
substantially.
Thank you,
Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
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September 2003
