The Real Estate Bottom May Be Near 

By Steve Palm
Smart Numbers

There were 6,043 closings for all single family in July. This is a decline of 20.9% from July 2006 and the 5^th consecutive monthly decline and the 9th decline over the past 11 periods.

Single family detached closed 5,150 units in July or a decline of 21.5% from the same year ago period. Condos and townhomes closed 891 units in July or a decline of 17.6% from the same year ago period.

These are all large year-to-year percentage declines, but there may be indications that a “bottom” is near. After lags were reported for June, the year-to-year percentage decline for all residential closings is now 19.5%. When lags are reported for July the percentage decline should be around 10-12%, which would be well below June’s 19% decline and even below May’s 14.7% decline. Hopefully we can now continue to reduce our declines and eventually have an increase before year-end.

The average sale price for all single family was $267,338 in July. This was down $5M from June’s record, but still the second highest recorded sale price for all single family residential for a reporting period.

The average closing price in July for single family detached was $278,797, while the average price for condos and townhomes was $201,168.

There were 6,579 expired listings for all residential in July. This is 1,800 more than July 2006, but still 600 less than December 2006’s record. There were 3,034 withdrawn listings for all residential in July. This was also a large increase over the same year ago period (1,000), but 400 less that June 2007’s record.

However, the combined total of expired and withdrawn listings for all residential was a new record at 9,613, easily surpassing June 2007’s previous record of 9,238. I expect this record to again be broken in the near future.

Months supply for all residential was 11.1 at the end of July. This is another record and the attached grid shows the months-supply history for the past 12 periods between single family detached and condos & townhomes.

Looking deeper into the months-supply for specific price points, we have over a two-year supply for housing $750,000 and above. There is over a 13 month-supply for homes $250,000-$750,000.

Unless the overall economy starts taking a turn for the worse, housing could start turning around in the 4th quarter.

Locally, Forsyth County and North Fulton have seen average homes values remain flat from July 2006 to July 2007.

Forsyth County currently has 8.93 month’s of inventory which is down from last month’s 9.31 months of inventory of pre-owned homes. This month’s 137.7 average selling time is up 5-days compared to last month’s average selling time of 132.3-days.

North Fulton currently has 7.85 month’s of inventory which is down from last month’s 7.96 months of inventory of pre-owned homes. This month’s 96.7 average selling time down 11-days compared to last month’s average selling time of 107.5 -days.

We received a half a point FED “window” rate reduction this week, but I still believe more is needed. At least two quarter-point reductions and another half point “window” rate deduction are needed before November to help start turning this market around.

I have been “pumping” up the press to state that now is the time to buy, as employment is high and interest rates are still low. Home sellers you may get less for your home now, but you will save even more on your move up home!

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